FX Emerging Markets Weekly 28 October 2013 |
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EUR/PLN is still hovering above the 4.1443 September low but at the same time remains below the 200 day moving average at 4.2048 and thus continues to look weak. We also note the presence of the 2011-2013 uptrend at 4.1563.
Further range trading, mostly with a negative bias, should be seen into year end with the currency pair expected to stay below the 4.3098 September high.
As long as this is the case the odds favour a retest of the September low at 4.1443.
Failure there on a weekly basis will mean that a top has been formed with the 200 week moving average at 4.1193 then being in focus. It should be reached by the end of the first quarter of 2014.
Good resistance above the 200 day moving average at 4.2048 can be seen between the 55 day moving average at 4.2185 and the late September high at 4.2403.
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