FX Emerging Markets Weekly 23 September 2013 |
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Last week the decline in EUR/PLN took it to 4.1443, to marginally above the 200 week moving average at 4.1180, before shooting back up to the 55 day moving average at 4.2606.
We are of the opinion that another significant interim low has thus been made and that the currency pair has thus resumed its uptrend.
The next upside targets are the 6.2646/58 resistance zone (38.2% Fibonacci retracement and early August high), the June-to-September resistance line at 4.2962 and the current September high at 4.3098.
Once the latter has been bettered, the 4.3708 June peak and then the 2008-13 resistance line at 4.3900 will be back in the picture.
Support is seen at 4.1928/4.1807 and at 4.1443. Unexpected failure at 4.1443 would target the 4.1180 zone.
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