FX Emerging Markets Weekly 19 August 2013

EUR/PLN – Daily Chart

We have changed our view to bullish; targets the 55 dma at 4.2637 and then the 4.35/37 region

Last week EUR/PLN levelled out slightly above the 200 day moving average at 4.1772 and has been accelerating higher since then.

We believe that the June-to-August consolidation phase has now ended and that the currency pair is once again heading towards the 4.35/37 region in which the June and July highs were made.
First the 55 day moving average and the current August high at 4.2637/58 will need to be overcome.
Once this has happened the 50% retracement of the June-to-August descent at 4.2757 and then the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 4.2982 will be in focus for the days ahead.
We will retain our once again bullish forecast while the currency pair stays above its 4.1807 current August low on a daily closing basis.
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