FX Emerging Markets Weekly 17 March 2014 |
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EUR/PLN’s rise from the 4.1397 February low has so far taken it to the long term resistance line at 4.2461, to just below the 50% retracement at 4.2495 which, together with the January peak at 4.2648, is likely to cap this week.
Slips should find support at 4.2209/4.2116. It is where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, November high and the 200 day moving average can all be seen.
While the currency pair remains above the 55 day moving average and the March 6 low at 4.1818/4.1726, recent upside pressure should be maintained.
This is why we remain medium term bullish even if short term a minor correction lower seems to be likely. The negative divergence seen on the daily RSI points to this happening.
Once a rise above 4.2648 has been seen, the 4.3098/4.3189 region will be in focus.
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