FX Emerging Markets Weekly 15 July 2013 |
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The jury is still out as to whether the minor correction lower in EUR/PLN from its one year high at 4.3708 to the early July low at 4.2638 has run its course but medium term the 4.4125/4.4315 resistance area, made up of the 2009-13 resistance line and the May 2012 peak, remains in view.
En route lies the June high at 4.3708 which first needs to get exceeded, however.
The currency pair’s advance is likely to run out of steam in the 4.4147/4.4315 resistance area.
Should it be bettered, the 4.5334 September 2011 high and also the 2011 peak at 4.5993 will be back in the picture.
Medium term we will retain our bullish forecast while EUR/PLN remains above its 4.2037 June low. Support below the current July low at 4.2638 but above the 4.2037 June low can be seen along the 55 day moving average at 4.2452.
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