FX Emerging Markets Weekly 10 February 2014 |
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EUR/PLN’s sharp decline from its 4.2648 January high has taken it all the way back to the 4.1697 level, effectively neutralising both our short term and medium term outlook.
We therefore expect further range trading to be seen in the weeks to come with the 4.1517/4.1283 major support area expected to underpin. It is where the September, November, December and January lows were made.
Minor resistance is seen around the 4.1926 January 10 high with more resistance being seen between the 200 day moving average at 4.2144 and the November peak and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the June-to-December decline at 4.2204/09.
We no longer believe that the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the June-to-December decline at 4.2782 and the 4.3000 region will be reached, at least not in the next few weeks.
Above these lies the September high at 4.3098.
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