FX Emerging Markets Weekly 09 September 2013

EUR/PLN – Daily Chart

Should range trade below last week’s high at 4.3098 before resuming its medium term uptrend

Last week EUR/PLN shot up to 4.3098 before retracing lower again and hitting the 50% retracement of the June-to-August decline at 4.2757.

While it stays below the current September high at 4.3098, the current September low at 4.2478 and the 4.2208 August 23 low will remain in play. Between the 4.2200 region and this year’s support line at 4.2046 the currency pair should then find support, though.
The August uptrend will only resume once the 4.3098 high has been bettered. Then the currency pair will probably once again head up towards the 4.35/37 region in which the June and July highs were made.
We will retain our medium term bullish forecast while the currency pair stays above its 4.1807 August low on a daily closing basis. Minor support above this level comes in around the 200 day moving average at 4.1875.
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