FX Emerging Markets Weekly 05 August 2013

EUR/PLN – Daily Chart

Late June three legged upside correction is expected to have ended at last week’s 4.2658 high

EUR/PLN weak three legged upside correction from its July 4.1994 low seems to have ended at last week’s 4.2658 high, between the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April-to-June advance and the 55 day moving average.
While this resistance area caps on a daily chart closing basis, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 4.1990 should be slipped through and the 200 day moving average at 4.1736 be reached. Another potential downside target zone is made up of the 55 week moving average and 2008-13 uptrend line which come in at 4.1559/10. Here the currency pair is expected to hold, however.
We thus recommend selling EUR/PLN between 4.2480 and 4.2640 while targeting the 4.1750 region with a stop loss being placed above 4.2750.
In case of an unexpected daily close above 4.2658 being made, the 4.3000 region and 4.3273 June 6 high would be targeted instead. This is not our preferred scenario, though.
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