FX Emerging Markets Weekly 02 December 2013 |
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EUR/PLN has reached and is stalling at the 200 day ma at 4.2070. It is essentially sidelined above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April-to-June rise at 4.1523.
As long as the current November low at 4.1517 and the 4.1443 September low underpin, further upside prices should be seen these are currently being capped by the 200 day ma at 4.2070.
If bettered, the 50% retracement and the late September high at 4.2318/4.2403 will be back in the picture as well.
Further range trading should be seen into year end with the currency pair expected to stay below the 4.3098 September high.
As long as this is the case the odds favour a retest of the September low at 4.1443 at some stage. Failure there on a weekly basis will mean that a top has been formed with the 200 week moving average at 4.1219 then being in focus. It should be reached by the end of the first quarter of 2014.
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