CS Energy Outlook 2014 |
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In 2014, the global oil market will remain amply supplied thanks to the sharp increase in non-OPEC oil production. US oil production should continue on its rapid upward trajectory. If crude oil from Libya and Iran were additionally to return to the market, OPEC would have to make cuts elsewhere in order to keep the oil market balanced. Unplanned supply outages and the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East argue against any significant slide in oil prices, so we expect to see an average Brent price of $106 per barrel in 2014. With demand high, we believe the diesel crack spread to be well-supported despite rising US exports. US natural gas remains detached and is likely to profit marginally from a recovery of the US economy. Coal should see increased demand, though plentiful supply will limit any rise in its price.
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