Commodity Weekly 07 August 2013

S&P GSCI Total Return Index

Market has reversed ahead of its 5004 2011-2013 downtrend should ease back.

The S&P GSCI Total Return Index has recently faltered ahead of the 61.8% retracement (of the move down from the September 2012 peak) at 4998 and reversed ahead of the 2011-2013 resistance line at 5004. The market is currently simply sidelined below here. Failure at this zone suggests that the market has topped and that we are likely to see further weakness.
We look for a slide back to the 4769/55 day ma and eventually the 4629 3 month support line.
Key support remains 4588 the 2009-2013 uptrend which guards the 4493 2013 low and the 4442 50% retracement (of the move 2009-2011). We would expect this 4442 zone to hold the initial test. Failure to do so would see losses to 4212.50, the 2012 low.
Only a weekly close above 5004 will alter the chart to more positive (not favoured) and target the 5148 2013 high.
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