Commodity Weekly 04 February 2014

S&P GSCI Total Return Index

Market has halted at the 200 day ma at 4796

The S&P GSCI Total Return Index has tested and failed at the 200 day ma at 4796. In this vicinity we also find 4805, the 38.2% retracement of the move down from August of last year and we suspect that the market has topped here. We look for a slide back to the 4615 January low.
The Elliott wave count on the 240 minute chart is also implying failure here. It is also suggests a move to 4535. A close below 4615 (recent low) would be negative and target initially the 4493.50 2013 low. Failure here will target 4442/47, the 50% retracement of the move from the 2009 low to the 2011 high and the 78.6% retracement of the move from 2012. This represents our medium term downside target.
Above 4805 (not favoured) we will have to allow for a slightly deeper retracement (4820/45), this is the 78.6% retracement of the move down from the December peak.
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