Commodity Weekly 03 December 2013

S&P GSCI Total Return Index

Topside capped by downtrend and 200 day ma – vulnerable on the downside.

The S&P GSCI Total Return Index appears to be stalling at the 3 month downtrend at 4777. Indeed the recent high registered at 4788.70 is indicated to be the end of wave 4 or the end of the short term corrective rebound.

As a consequence attention reverts to the downside and the 2009-2013 support line at 4655. A close below here and the 4630 recent low should be enough to trigger another leg lower.

The resistance line at 4777 is reinforced by the 55 and 200 day moving averages at 4809/4805. While capped here a short term negative bias will remain entrenched.

A weekly close below 4630 would be very negative and target initially the 4493.50 2013 low.

Failure here will target 4442/47, the 50% retracement of the move from the 2009 low to the 2011 high and the 78.6% retracement of the move from 2012. This represents our medium term downside target.

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