Commodity Currencies Weekly Technicals 11 September 2013

NZD/USD – Daily Chart

In view of the recent sharp rally we have had to neutralise our outlook

NZD/USD’s swift rally off its .7721 late August low has taken it back to the 2013 resistance line at .8069.

In view of the impulsive nature of this rise we feel compelled to neutralise both our short- and medium-term forecasts and allow for the .8106/87 resistance area to be retested. It is made up of the July peak, August high and the 200 day moving average at .8187 and it should cap.
Should this not be the case, a bottom will have been formed with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the April-to-June decline at .8298 being targeted. This is not our preferred scenario, though.
Instead we expect the currency pair to run out of steam in the .8106/87 region and for it to then head back down towards the .7721/.7683 major support zone which encompasses the June-to-August lows. If fallen through, our downside target zone, made up of the .7456/.7371 May 2012 low and November 2011 low, will be in focus.
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