Chart Watch – EURCZK One Year Forecast 17 October 2013

EUR/CZK – Daily Chart

In view of the September failure swing we expect the 25.00 region to be revisited during 2014

In late September EUR/CZK shot up to 25.99 before strongly reversing its short term trend and dropping towards key support at 25.475/46. It is made up of the June low and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2012-13 advance and, although it may hold for a few days or even weeks, this support area is expected to give way in October or November.

Failure at the 25.475/46 suppor t zone and at the next lower 25.38 March low would make us medium term bearish and lead to the February low at 25.18 and the 200 week moving average at 25.165 being back on the map. These levels are expected to be reach ed by the end of the first quarter of 2014.

Further down lies the Dece mber 2012 low at 25.05 which should be reached within the second quarter of 2014.

We will retain our overall be arish view while EUR/CZK trades below the 25.99 September high.

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