Commodity Weekly 07 January 2014 |
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The S&P GSCI Total Return Index failed just ahead of the 4930/41, which was the 61.8% retracement and the high seen in October and sold off aggressively. Intraday rallies should hold 4770/90 ahead of further losses.
This sell off has already reached the 2009-2014 uptrend at 4686. A close below here and the 4630 recent low should be enough to trigger another leg lower.
A weekly close below 4630 would be very negative and target initially the 4493.50 2013 low. Failure here will target 4442/47, the 50% retracement of the move from the 2009 low to the 2011 high and the 78.6% retracement of the move from 2012. This represents our medium term downside target.
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