Commodity Weekly 28 November 2013

S&P GSCI Total Return Index

Near term strength viewed as corrective only

The S&P GSCI Total Return Index has still not registered a close below the 4 year uptrend and we have now re-drawn it, this is located at 4649 currently

We view the near term rebound as corrective only and while we acknowledge the resistance line at 4787 and the 55 and 200 day moving averages at 4814/17, current Elliot wave analysis is suggesting that we should allow for a slightly deeper retracement to 4858/72, the 50% retracement.

A negative bias will persist while capped by 4872.

A weekly close below 4649 would be very negative and target initially the 4493.50 2013 low.

Only an unexpected move above 4941 (mid-October high) would neutralise the chart and negate our bearish view as this would imply recovery to 5114/5185.

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