Commodity Weekly 24 September 2013

S&P GSCI Total Return Index – Daily Chart

Market has sold off to its 200 day ma at 4848

The S&P GSCI Total Return Index has sold off to its 200 day ma at 4848, where we would expect to see some consolidation. The market recently failed just ahead of 5165/85, this is the location of the 61.8% retracement of the move down from 2011. Near term risks remain on the downside.

Failure at the 200 day ma at 4848 would see prices slump to the 4 month support line at 4690. Key support remains the 4 year uptrend at 4632. We would expect to see this hold the initial test.
Rallies will now find initial resistance no w at 5000. Only a move above 5185 would imply ongoing strength to the 5400 2012 high.
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