FX Emerging Markets Weekly 22 July 2013

EUR/PLN – Daily Chart

Correction lower should stabilise 4.2180/4.20

The correction lower in EUR/PLN from its one year high at 4.3708 remains in force. The move will shortly encounter both the high from January and the short term uptrend at 4.2181/93. The Elliot wave count on the daily chart is indicating that this correction lower is likely to end ahead of the 61.8% retracement at 4.1990.
Medium term the 4.4125/4.4315 resistance area, made up of the 2009-13 resistance line and the May 2012 peak, remains in view. En route lies the June high at 4.3708 which first needs to get exceeded, however.
The currency pair’s advance is likely to run out of steam in the 4.4147/4.4315 resistance area. Should it be bettered, the 4.5334 September 2011 high and also the 2011 peak at 4.5993 will be back in the picture
Medium term we will retain our bullish forecast while EUR/PLN remains above its 4.2037 June low.
Below 4.1990 would introduce scope to re-test the 4.1536/4.1440 55 week moving average and the 2008-2013 uptrend.
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