FX Week 28 April 2013

FX Week

EUR/USD faces ‘twin’ tests at the start of the month

Markets will begin the new month with more than the usual degree of focus on the two key events at the start of any month; namely the ECB meeting on Thursday followed on Friday by the latest US employment data. EUR/USD has fallen into a trading range since early April roughly between 1.30-1.32 as doubts about the US recovery have begun to grow. However, as well as these concerns, the Eurozone’s outlook has also darkened, to such an extent that an ECB rate cut now looks almost inevitable in the coming week. Consequently the EUR’s bias still appears to be downwards with the greater risk being that it breaks the bottom of its existing trading band in the context of easier ECB monetary policy and amidst new structural risks.
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